Chan-hom departs Okinawa waters

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From Stripes.com

Chan-hom departs Okinawa waters

by: Dave Ornauer | .
Stars and Stripes | .
published: July 10, 2015

6:15 p.m. Friday, July 10, Japan/Korea time: U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, but don’t take that to mean all’s well. Wait until TCCOR 4 is re-issued to venture outdoors again.

As to Typhoon Chan-hom’s future, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Chan-hom to tear through the Miyako and Yaeyama islands Saturday, then make landfall over the east China coast mid-Saturday afternoon, heading right over Shanghai as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, before curving northeast into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) as a mild to moderate tropical storm.

Chan-hom is next projected to make second landfall over the southwest coast of North Korea as a tropical depression. For the moment, U.S. facilities on Korea’s southwest coast should remain out of harm’s way, but that could change.


5:20 p.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition Storm Watch. That does not by any means necessarily mean we are out of the woods on Okinawa. Chan-hom is moving away,  but its proximity could very much mean it’s close enough that its backside winds and rain bands could forces us back into TCCOR 1-C or other conditions moving forward. Best to remain indoors until seasonal TCCOR 4 is issued.

 

 2 p.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: Reports of road closures, injuries and more flight cancellations are starting to come in from local officials on Okinawa.

According to Okinawa prefecture disaster prevention and crisis management office:

As of Friday morning, 21 people were reported injured, three seriously, each elderly. An 87-year-old man fell in a Yonashiro parking lot, fracturing his leg. In Nakagusuku near Camp Foster, a woman was swept onto a road when she opened the door to her home, fracturing her right leg and hip. In Miyako island, four tourists were hit by a wind gust when strolling the garden of the hotel where they were staying; a 70-year-old man suffered cuts to his head.

Two structures suffered damage in Okinawa city. No flooding has been reported. Highway 73 in Kadena town and seven major bridges were closed to traffic.

As of early Friday morning, 176 people from 136 households took shelter in public facilities.

According to Okinawa Electric Power Company, as of 10 a.m., 19,800 home remain without power. As of 5 a.m., 42,000 homes lost power.

From Naha Airport comes word that 104 flights have been canceled inbound and outbound, affecting 8,825 passengers. That’s in addition to the 222 flights canceled Thursday and 24,000-plus passengers stranded as a result.


1:15 p.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: The strongest winds Chan-hom had to offer have apparently come and gone, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery), which is the least predictable period among the least predictable weather elements in the world.

Staff civil on all bases have mobilized to assess damage, downed power lines and trees, flooded areas, building damage, all of which has to be cleared and the winds die down enough for base officials to determine when it’s safe to venture outside. No telling how long 1-R will last. Safest course of action is to remain indoors until season TCCOR 4 is issued.

Sustained winds of 40 mph or greater are forecast by the weather flight to continue until 7 p.m. Friday. There is still enough activity on the back side of Chan-hom – the south and east quadrants – to still be a cause for concern. A lot of rain and heavy wind bands. A scenario similar to Neoguri last July, but probably not with as much rain and wind.

Long term, Chan-hom is still projected by JTWC to begin curving northeast Saturday into Sunday and head back over open water into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) on Monday. If it remains on its current track, Chan-hom should be within 185 miles west-southwest of Kunsan Air Base at about 9 a.m. Wednesday, still packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at its center.


10 a.m., Friday, July 10, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). After the passage of a tropical cyclone, when destructive winds have subsided and are no longer forecast to occur, survey and work crews are sent out to determine the extent of the damage and to establish safe zones around hazards (e.g. downed power lines, unstable structures).

Until the recovery process is declared complete (seasonal TCCOR 4), or the risk of injury and/or damage to personnel and property has been mitigated to a safe level, the general base population would normally be asked to remain indoors. In some instances, it may be necessary to return to TCCOR Storm Watch from this TCCOR level if the storm is not currently forecast to return to the area, but is in close enough proximity that should it change course, it could likely impact the area again.

All non-emergency essential personnel should remain indoors while damage assessment and cleanup is accomplished.

 

 

 

 

7:30 a.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: Looks as if folks on U.S. bases on Okinawa will end up with a three-day weekend, if most of it is not spent indoors. Typhoon Chan-hom has already made its closest point of approach to Okinawa, but the island is far from out of the woods at this point. Heavy winds and rain are still lashing the island, so staying indoors is as safe a bet as there is.

At 3 a.m. Friday, Chan-hom was about 120 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, tracking northwest at 15 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency); expect that to remain in place until at least 9 a.m., perhaps longer.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Maximum 69-mph sustained winds, 112-mph gusts for Okinawa, come and gone around 1 a.m. local time (62-mph sustained winds, 83-mph gusts occurred at Kadena at 1 a.m.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 9 a.m. Friday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 7 p.m. Friday.

Again, no telling how long TCCOR 1-R (recovery) might last. Actually, no telling if 9 a.m. might be the end of TCCOR 1-E; tropical cyclones are the least predictable weather events in the world. Anybody who endured Neoguri a year ago might agree. There’s not as much activity on the back side of Chan-hom as there was with Neoguri, but Chan-hom could hang around for a good while. Weather Flight and Japanese forecast still call for rain to last into Sunday.

Best bet: Stay indoors until seasonal TCCOR 4 resumes, whenever that may be.

Long term: Chan-hom is still on track to skirt the east coast of China, making landfall at about 2 p.m. Saturday and passing over Shanghai before heading back over open water in the Yellow Sea (West Sea). JTWC projects Chan-hom to be some 210 miles west of Kunsan Air Base at about 3 a.m. Wednesday, carrying 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at its center.

12:45 a.m. Friday, July 10, Japan time: Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight for Okinawa:
◾ Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, occurring now.
◾ Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, occurring now.
◾Maximum 75-mph sustained winds, 98-mph gusts for Okinawa. 4 a.m. Friday (maximum 63-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts at Kadena).
◾ Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 6 a.m. Friday.
◾ Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 3 p.m. Friday.

Could be a long recovery period. Be prepared to stay indoors for quite some time.

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11:30 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: Chan-hom is tracking a bit closer to Okinawa than previous forecasts and has intensified over the last six hours. Chan-hom is due to pass about 140 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 4 a.m. Friday, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at its center. Still no telling how soon Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) will be declared and how long it will last.

At 9 p.m. Thursday, Chan-hom was about 160 miles south of Kadena, tracking northwest at 15 mph packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at its center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 1-E (Emergency).

Little change to Chan-hom’s track in the coming days, save for heading further west into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) early next week than previously forecast. Chan-hom is projected to be 235 miles west-southwest of Kunsan Air Base early Wednesday morning, still packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at its center. Dynamic model guidance remains all over the lot, and we’re talking five days out, so much can change in the run-up.

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9 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Sustained 58-mph winds and 69-mph gusts are actually occurring. All outdoor activity is prohibited.

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6:30 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C; East-West Danger is the current sea condition.:
◾ Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, already occurring.
◾ Onset of 58-mph sustained winds, 2 a.m. Friday.
◾ Maximum 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts, 2 a.m. Friday (58-mph sustained, 69-mph gusts for Kadena).
◾ Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained, 6 a.m. Friday.
◾ Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 1 p.m. Friday.

As a veteran of these battles, not PST – and really, nobody – has any way of gauging how long TCCOR 1-R (recovery) will last. Once winds drop below 58-mph sustained, staff civil fans out to look for areas of flooding, downed power lines, tree limbs or whole trees uprooted and how quickly the mess can be cleaned up.

And even when TCCOR SW (Storm Watch) is declared, there’s no guarantee the storm threat has ended. More than once, a typhoon has been thought to move out of the area, only to remain close enough and keep lashing Okinawa with high winds that TCCOR 1-C needed to be reissued.

Safest option is to remain indoors until seasonal TCCOR 4 is issued.

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6 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-Caution at 6 p.m. Winds between 40 and 56 mph are occurring at a particular installation on Okinawa. Time to get indoors, campers.

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6 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time. Well, it’s happening, campers. The outer wind and rain bands associated with Typhoon Chan-hom have begun lashing Okinawa, the more vicious winds to the southwest, but rain beginning to envelope the entire island from Hedo to Itoman.

At 6 p.m., Chan-hom was 227 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, rumbling northwest at 15 mph., packing sustained 104-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at its center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Closest point of approach to Kadena has adjusted some, about 148 miles southwest at 3 a.m. Friday, an hour earlier than last forecast.

Updated wind forecast timeline in the next post to PST, around 7:30 p.m. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1.

Guam’s National Weather Service reports typhoon-force winds extend up to 40 miles from Chan-hom’s center and tropical storm-force winds 165 miles from center.

What’s somewhat disconcerting are the still and looping imagery PST is viewing of Chan-hom. Much of the activity appears to be in the south and east quadrants of the storm, much in the way Neoguri’s backside inundated Okinawa right around this time last year even after its most fierce winds had come and gone.

Both Japanese and Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather flight’s extended weather forecast call for up to 80-percent chance of rain and isolated/scattered thunderstorms lasting all the way into Sunday.

Once past Okinawa, Chan-hom is forecast to plow through the Miyako and Yaeyama island chains on Friday, then start curving northeast as it skirts the east China coast, making landfall at mid-afternoon Saturday and passing almost directly over Shanghai at mid-afternoon Sunday.

Dynamic model guidance differs in the long term, but Chan-hom is currently projected to head back over open water in the Yellow Sea (West Sea) as a mild tropical storm, packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at 3 p.m. Tuesday Korea time. It would be 230 miles southwest of Kunsan Air Base at that point.

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4:30 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: So far, no serious damage reported in the Okinawa community as of 4:30 p.m.

As far as transportation into and out of Naha International Airport, most inbound and outbound flights were either canceled or turned around; a few made it in and out early this morning.

At least 222 flights were canceled, affecting 24,677 passengers due to depart or arrive at Naha, airport officials said.

All-Nippon Airways lost the most, 61 flights, affecting 8,800 passengers. Japan Transocean Air had 48 flights canceled and 4,530 passengers stranded. Ryukyu Air Commuter had 34 flights grounded, affecting 704 passengers. Skymark canceled 29 flights, stranding 3,000 passengers. Japan Air Lines grounded 23 flights, affecting 4,550 passengers. Solaseed Air canceled 18 flights carrying 1,675 passengers. And Jetstar called off nine flights, stranding 1,418 passengers.

From Naval Hospital Okinawa comes an announcement for expectant mothers at 37 weeks or more of gestation: At TCCOR 1-C, they are to report to USNH, where they'll reside during the storm.

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2:15 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: Chan-hom’s closest point of approach to Okinawa is now forecast for 150 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 4 a.m. Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawaw remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1.

At noon, Chan-hom was 300 miles southeast of Kadena, tracking northwest at 14 mph. U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 at 2 p.m. Chan-hom is forecast to peak as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, peaking at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at mid-evening Friday, well after closest point of approach.

Here’s the weather flight’s latest wind forecast timeline:
◾ Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, midnight Thursday.
◾ Maximum 46-mph sustained winds, 75-mph gusts for Okinawa, 4 a.m. Friday (40-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts at Kadena).
◾ Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 9 a.m. Friday.

No change to the weather flight’s extended weather forecast, posted below (9 a.m. Thursday). Chan-hom is forecast to curve northeast, skim the east China coast, pass Shanghai and enter the Yellow Sea (West Sea) and heading toward Korea’s southwest coast, still packing 40-mph winds and 52-mile gusts and should be about 300 miles southwest of Kunsan Air Base at 9 a.m. Tuesday.

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2 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: At 2 p.m., U.S. bases on Okinawa will enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1, according to Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

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12:30 p.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. The 18th Operations Support Squadron at Kadena Air Base, Japan, recommends removing or securing items outside homes and facilities.

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9 a.m. Thursday, July 9, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

At 6 a.m., Chan-hom was 375 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking northwest at 14 mph. If it remains on its current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, Chan-hom’s closest point of approach could be 152 miles southwest at 3 a.m. Friday.

Forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
◾ Onset of sustained 40-mph winds, 1 a.m. Friday.
◾ Maximum 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts for Okinawa, 3 a.m. Friday. (40-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts for Kadena Air Base).
◾ Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 9 a.m. Friday.

Extended weather outlook at Shogunweather.com, the weather flight’s official Web site, calls for:
◾ Thursday morning, northeasterly 30-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
◾ Thursday evening, northeasterly 35-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts.
◾ Friday morning, easterly 40-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts.
◾ Friday evening, east-southeasterly 35-mph winds, 63-mph gusts.

Conditions should remain windy with cloudy skies, rain and isolated/scattered thunderstorms throughout the weekend.

The forecast and Chan-hom’s projected path could change. No time like now to take precautions, tie down or bring loose objects inside around office and home.

In the long term, Chan-hom is due to peak at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts Friday afternoon as it passes through Japan’s southwestern Miyako and Yaeyama islands. It’s then forecast to make landfall over southeastern China, then jackknife east past Shanghai into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) and make its way toward Korea. Forecast models diverge at that point due to timing and track speed, so it’s hard to say what effect it may have on Korea

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Midnight Wednesday, July 8, Japan time: Chan-hom has resumed a northwest track and is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning center to pass 145 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, about 3 a.m. Friday. Maximum sustained 46-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts are forecast for late Thursday into Friday.

At midnight Wednesday, Chan-hom was about 450 miles southeast of Kadena, tracking northwest at 13 mph, packing sustained 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at its center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Though peak winds are likely to come and go quickly, starting to diminish early Friday morning, rain is forecast by both Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight Web site and local Japanese forecasts to begin Thursday and last into Sunday.

Folks on island last July who endured Typhoon Neoguri might, maybe, see the same scenario develop, the worst of the winds dying down, but the back side of the storm drowning the island with seemingly ceaseless showers. It might happen; then again, it might not. Tropical cyclones are unpredictable buggers, and Chan-hom has been moving erratically from the jump.

After making landfall at about 8 p.m. Saturday over China in Zhejiang Province and passing east of Shanghai, there’s every chance Chan-hom could re-enter open water over the Yellow Sea (West Sea) southwest of the Korean peninsula and could head toward west-coast U.S. assets as a mild tropical storm, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts by late Monday evening.

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8 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Japan time: Chan-hom’s track has changed again, putting it on course to come within 138 miles southwest of Okinawa at 2 a.m. Friday, with stronger winds and a tad more rain in the cards, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight website, Shogunweather.com.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Sea condition remains East-West Caution; expect that to be upgraded to East-West Danger any time now.

Updated forecast wind timeline from Shogunweather.com:
◾ Onset of sustained 40-mph winds, 8 p.m. Thursday.
◾ Maximum 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts for Okinawa, 11 p.m. Thursday (40-mph sustained, 55-mph gusts for Kadena).
◾ Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 8 a.m. Friday.

Extended weather forecast by Shogunweather.com, reads:
◾ Thursday: Morning, easterly 25-mph winds, 38-to-46-mph gusts, 40 percent chance of rain, isolated thunderstorms. Evening, easterly 38-mph winds, 56-to-69-mph gusts, 60 percent chance of rain, scattered thunderstorms.
◾ Friday: Morning, easterly 41-mph winds, 61-to-69 mph gusts, 70 percent chance of rain and numerous thunderstorms. Evening, southeasterly 28-mph winds, 42-to-58-mph gusts, 80 percent chance of rain and numerous thunderstorms.
◾ Saturday, Sunday: Winds diminishing, 50 percent to 60 percent chance of rain and scattered/isolated thunderstorms.

Two to four inches of rain now forecast, double that of previous projections. Chan-hom has changed course many times in its eight-day life span; it could change again. Vigilance and preparation are vital.

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8:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 8, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Sustained 58-mph winds are not forecast, but there’s still the probability of high winds and rain since Typhoon Chan-hom is projected to pass close enough to Okinawa to warrant such condition. Chan-hom could still deviate from its forecast track and come close enough to warrant TCCOR 1 status or higher. Vigilance and preparation are always key.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
◾ Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 11 p.m. Thursday.
◾ Maximum 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts for Okinawa, 1 a.m. Friday (40-mph sustained, 46-mph gusts for Kadena).
◾ Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 4 a.m. Friday.

Just 1 to 2 inches of rain are forecast for the moment; more is always possible.

Extended weather forecast by Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s weather flight’s official website, reads as follows:
◾ Thursday: Morning, easterly 25-mph winds, 38- to 46-mph gusts, 40-percent chance of rain, isolated thunderstorms. Evening, easterly 38-mph winds, 56-69-mph gusts, 60-percent chance of rain, scattered thunderstorms.
◾ Friday: Morning, easterly 41-mph winds, 61- to 69-mph gusts, 70-percent chance of rain and numerous thunderstorms. Evening, southeasterly 28-mph winds, 42- to 58-mph gusts, 80-percent chance of rain and numerous thunderstorms.
◾ Saturday, Sunday: Winds diminishing, 50- to 60-percent chance of rain and scattered/isolated thunderstorms.

Chan-hom’s track has moved erratically during the past few days, so all this could change, especially if Chan-hom’s track takes it closer to Okinawa. Currently, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Chan-hom to pass 175 miles southwest of Kadena at 1 a.m. Friday. It’s then projected to make landfall over eastern China sometime Saturday morning.

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11:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Left-right-left-right-left-right. Chan-hom’s forecast track continues to seem like a drill instructor’s cadence count in basic training. Once again, the track has shifted almost due west; Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects Chan-hom to pass 186 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 2 a.m. Friday.

Chan-hom at 11:30 p.m. was 713 miles southeast of Okinawa, tracking almost due west at 12 mph. Though the center should pass well away from Kadena, it’s still a vast storm, more than 800 miles in diameter and should peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph winds about four hour after it makes closest point of approach.

So even at such a distance, Okinawa should still experience a fair amount of wind and rain as Chan-hom passes. Local forecasts call for winds picking up Thursday into Friday, with between 50- and 80-percent chance of rain and thunderstorms during the passage period. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; that could change to TCCOR Storm Watch or even TCCOR 3, depending on track and wind speeds in the coming hours.

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8:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Here’s the latest forecast wind timeline for Okinawa and Typhoon Chan-hom, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
◾ Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, midnight Thursday.
◾ Maximum sustained 40-mph winds, 58-mph gusts for Okinawa, 2 a.m. Friday (40-mph sustained, 52-mph gusts for Kadena).
◾ Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained, 7 a.m. Friday.

Sea condition East-West Caution is in effect for the moment.

Only 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected at Kadena, so not forecasted to be the big rain event that the island needs, with reservoir levels below 60 percent.

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5:45 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Continuing its zig-zag walk through the western Pacific, Typhoon Chan-hom has resumed a west-northwest course and the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center update positions Chan-hom’s closest point of approach about 23 miles northeast of previous forecast.

Chan-hom, 774 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base as of 6 p.m., is moving west-northwest at 10 mph and is now forecast to rumble 167 miles southwest at about 3 a.m. Friday. It should peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at its center. It’s a huge storm; about 820 miles in diameter, an official with Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight said.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. There is a possibility of entering TCCOR 3 or TCCOR Storm Watch, depending on Chan-hom’s track and local forecast wind speeds.

For the moment, wind and rain parameters remain the same: 40- to 50-percent chance of rain Thursday, 70-percent on Friday and 50- to 60-percent chance on Saturday, according to Shogunweather.com, the weather flight's official Web site.

Expect an increase in winds starting Wednesday, evening, 27- to 35-mph gusts. That should increase Thursday morning to 26-mph easterly winds with 41- to 50-mph gusts, and 36 and 57 to 65 by evening. Easterly 37-mph winds and 55- to 65-mph gusts are expected Friday morning, decreasing to southeasterly 25-mph winds and 37- to 48-mph gusts by Friday evening.

One change to the forecast track as Chan-hom approaches China: It's now forecast to diminish into a tropical storm as it skirts the east coast of China near Shanghai at mid-afternoon Sunday. Where it heads after that, is too soon to say.

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Updated at 3 p.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Typhoon Chan-hom has turned slightly southwest and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes it even further southwest of Okinawa, 190 miles at 2 a.m. Friday.

It is also no longer forecast to reach super-typhoon strength; now projected to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at its center. Still a powerful storm, but the track continues to vary away from Okinawa, through the Miyako and Yaeyama Islands in southwest Japan and closer to Taiwan. Landfall is forecast for mid-morning Saturday over China, just south of Shanghai.

Shogunweather.com, Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight's official Web site, calls for winds to pick up Wednesday, evening, 27- to 35-mph gusts. That should increase Thursday morning to 26-mph easterly winds with 41- to 50-mph gusts, increasing to 36 and 57 to 65 by evening. Easterly 37-mph winds and 55- to 65-mph gusts are expected Friday morning, decreasing to southeasterly 25-mph winds and 37- to 48-mph gusts by Friday evening.

Precipitation probability is 40 to 50 percent Thursday, 70 percent Friday and and 50 to 60 percent on Saturday, according to Shogunweather.com.

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9:45 a.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight issued its first advisory concerning Typhoon Chan-hom this morning.

If Chan-hom continues on its forecast track, damaging sustained 58-mph winds or greater are not expected to occur, the statement said. Top winds at Kadena are forecast to be 40-mph sustained with 58-mph gusts, while other parts of the island could see 46-mph winds and 69-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Here’s the forecast wind timeline for Okinawa:
◾ Onset of 40-mph sustained winds, 3 p.m. Thursday.
◾ Maximum 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts, 9 p.m. Thursday.
◾ Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 3 a.m. Friday.

Weather flight forecasts between 2 to 3 inches of rain for the island.

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7:15 a.m. Tuesday, July 7, Japan time: Little change to Chan-hom other than timing and tracking. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Chan-hom yet further southwest of Okinawa, about 180 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 9 p.m. Thursday. It should reach peak winds of 150-mph sustained and 184-mph gusts at about 3 a.m. Friday, making it the fourth super typhoon of the season, just as it reaches the southwestern islands of Miyako and Ishigaki. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

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11:30 p.m. Monday, July 6, Japan time: Chan-hom is once more a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, packing sustained 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts as it swirls some 950 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

Little change to Chan-hom’s forecast track; it’s projected to pass about 160 miles southwest of Kadena about 7 p.m. Thursday. But it’s forecast to peak as the fourth super typhoon of the season two hours later, 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at its center.

And it’s a pretty large storm in terms of diameter, more than 10 degrees wide, with plenty of wind and rain bands in Chan-hom’s north and east quadrants. So, while Okinawa may be spared Chan-hom’s fiercest winds, the island should get its share of gusts and rainshowers and possible thunderstorms. For sure, Ishigaki and Miyako to the southwest are in for it, big time.

Still three days away. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 for the moment. Any number of things can change in three days. PST is all over this one.

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6 p.m. Monday, July 6, Japan time: Tropical Storm Chan-hom’s forecast track has varied further southwest, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Chan-hom is now projected to pass some 160 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 8 p.m. Thursday, knifing its way between Okinawa and Taiwan through Friday afternoon before slamming ashore in China just south of Shanghai on Saturday.

Though seemingly distant from Okinawa, Chan-hom is forecast to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 185-mph gusts at its center at mid-afternoon Thursday, making it the fourth super typhoon of the season. The storm is also rather wide in diameter, with plenty of rain and wind bands in the north and east sections of the storm, the effects of which Okinawa will likely feel as Chan-hom roars past.

Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official Web site, calls for winds to pick up Thursday morning, easterly 24-mph sustained and 37- to 45-mph gusts, increasing to 32 and 48 to 54 by evening into Friday morning, with winds decreasing by evening, southeasterly 22-mph sustained winds and 34- to 45-mph gusts.

Japan Meteorological Agency forecast call for precipitation to start Wednesday, 50-percent chance of rain, increasing to 70 percent on Thursday and 80 percent on Friday.

All of this can change rapidly; Chan-hom is still a good three days away. Bear in mind Chan-hom’s very erratic movements during its visit to the Marianas two days ago and the fact that the forecast track has varied by some 400 miles southwest the last few days.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 for the moment. If the track varies back east, that could change very quickly. No time like now to start stocking up on supplies and do a general survey of things that need to be tied down or brought indoors at the office or at home.

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Noon Monday, July 6, Japan time: Chan-hom continues to move somewhat erratically, briefly turning north-northwest Monday morning. But the Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to show Chan-hom tracking northwest and passing just southwest of Okinawa later this week, leading to a wet, windy Thursday and Friday.

The latest track calls for Chan-hom to regain Category 1-equivalent typhoon status Monday evening. It’s forecast to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at mid-morning Thursday, then start weakening as it approaches the island. Chan-hom is forecast to pass 110 miles southwest of Kadena at about 4 a.m. Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. The forecast at Shogunweather.com, Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s official site, calls for winds to pick up Thursday, 24-mph sustained and 37-45-mph gusts Thursday morning, increasing to 32 and 48-54 Thursday evening. Friday morning should see 33-mph sustained winds and 48-54-mph gusts in the morning, falling off to 22 and 34-45 in the evening.

All of this could change, depending on track speeds, intensification and other atmospheric conditions. Chan-hom’s movements around Guam and Rota on Sunday were unpredictable, at best, but there’s no time like now to start preparing in case Chan-hom’s track changes and the outlook for Okinawa worsens over the next couple of days.

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12:30 a.m. Monday, July 6, Japan time: PST hasn’t seen it much, but Chan-hom spent much of Sunday making a tight circle through the Rota Channel, then straight over the island before moving back onto a northwest course, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The tropical storm warning for Guam was canceled at 2 p.m. according to the Joint Information Center.

JIC reports that flash flood warnings are still in effect, along with high surf and small-craft advisories. Residents are advised to avoid low-lying areas that may be flooded. More than 9 inches of rain had fallen due to Chan-hom as of Sunday morning, JIC reported.

So, what’s next? JTWC calls for Chan-hom to regain Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by Monday evening, and its track takes it 113 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at about 9 p.m. Thursday, at which point it should be packing 143-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at its center.

Long-range forecast by Shogunweather.com, Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight official page, calls for winds to pick up starting Thursday morning, sustained easterly 26-mph winds and 40-51-mph gusts, increasing to 39 and 60-72 by evening. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement, according to the JTWC. But these things can change, as noted earlier with Chan-hom’s erratic movement through the Rota Channel Sunday.

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5 p.m. Sunday, July 5, Guam time: Chan-hom, thought to be exiting the Marianas, has instead stood almost stock still the last six hours, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Rota and Guam, according to Guam’s National Weather Service, and new closest points of approach have been designated by JTWC for the Marianas.

JTWC projects Chan-hom to pass 42 miles north of Andersen Air Force Base and 65 miles north of Big Navy between 5 and 6 p.m., and almost directly over Rota at 5 p.m. Wind speeds have picked up; Chan-hom is packing 58-mph winds and 75-mph gusts at its center.

Here’s the latest from Guam’s Joint Information Center, which speaks in one voice for the island and U.S. bases:
***
Tropical Storm Chan-hom has become quasi-stationary at the Rota Channel, moving west-northwest at 3 mph.

Warning Coordination Meteorologist Chip Guard said that even as Chan-hom is moving away from Guam, it is “intensifying a little and we will be experiencing some tropical storm winds the rest of the afternoon.”

NWS meteorologists also noted that rain bands associated with Tropical Storm Chan-hom is bringing strong winds and heavy rain to Guam and the adjacent coastal waters as they move south over the island.

This storm has proven to be erratic, changing speeds, direction and intensity in the last two days. Residents are asked to remain alert and be prepared for many major changes to this ever-changing storm.

The following NWS advisories remain in effect:

Flash flood warning in effect

Do not go hiking. Flash flooding is expected in low-lying areas and near river and streams. As a result, it is extremely dangerous to venture into jungle.
Also, residents are advised to stay away from streams, drainage ditches and low-lying areas prone to flooding. Up to 9 inches or rain had fallen as of Sunday morning, and meteorologists anticipate additional rainfall throughout the day.

Driving conditions

Rainfall and runoff will also cause hazardous driving conditions due to ponding, reduced visibility and slick roads. Heavy rains can cause manholes to come up out of the pavement so motorists are advised to be very cautious on the roads.

High surf advisory

Stay out of the water. A high surf advisory has been issued, which means water conditions are dangerous. Guam can expect hazardous surf of 10 to 12 feet along east facing reefs, 8 to 10 feet along south and west facing reefs, and 6 to 9 feet along north facing reefs through Monday.

Small craft advisory

The NWS has issued a small craft advisory, in effect until 6 pm Monday. Combined seas of 10-14 feet are expected through Monday afternoon. A small craft advisory mean that wind speeds of 24 to 38 mph are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Accurate information through our media partners.

The Joint Information Center is the government of Guam, military, and federal government’s clearinghouse for accurate information about emergencies. We will release all news releases via our e-mail list, which includes media partners, and the Facebook pages of the Governor of Guam, Guam Homeland Security and Joint Region Marianas.

The following is a list of online sites where you can get the accurate information about Tropical Storm Chan-hom:
◾GHS/OCD website
◾GHS/OCD Facebook
◾Governor of Guam Facebook
◾National Weather Service
◾Joint Region Marianas Facebook

Please call the Joint Information Center at 478-0208/9/10 for more information.

JTWC’s latest track also takes Chan-hom closer to Okinawa, now projected to pass 95 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 10 p.m. Thursday, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at its center. Japanese weather forecasts call for 50-percent chance of rain on Wednesday, increasing to 70 percent on Thursday and Friday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 for the moment. No word yet on how soon that might change. But dynamic model guidance has come into better agreement over the last 12 hours, which means Okinawa might be in for wet, windy days later this week.

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2 p.m. Sunday, July 5, Guam time: The typhoon warning for Saipan and Tinian has been canceled, while Guam and Rota remain under tropical storm warning as of 2 p.m., according to Guam’s National Weather Service.

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1:30 p.m. Sunday, July 5, Guam time: Though Chan-hom continues moving northwest of Guam, the back side of the storm is causing heavy rain and flooding in some areas. Following is the latest from the island’s Joint Information Center:

Guam was placed in COR 4 at 11 a.m. Sunday. Although we have seen the worst of the weather, residents can still expect heavy rain for the next few hours.
Guam Power Authority crews are also responding to a reported outage in Salas Street, Manengon, Yona.

Floods have been reported at the following areas:
◾ Fonte River, Maina
◾ Mandarin Lane Tai He, Mangilao
◾ Tamuning, behind the old Ben Franklin
◾ Route 1, Polaris Pt.
◾ Route 6 & Route 1, Adelup – heading towards Nimitz Hill
◾ Tumon San Vitores Rd.
◾ Route 16, Barrigada
◾ Route 8, Tiyan High School entrance
◾ Toto Canada Road. Barrigada “Snake Road.”
◾Reflection Center, Santa Papa, Hagatna
◾ Route 4, Jose C. Baza Street, Merizo
◾ Belen Ave., Inarajan
◾ Taitano Road., “Hamburger Road.”, Tamuning to Harmon is impassable.
◾ Quichocho Street, Pulantat, Yona is impassable. Residents in that area are being redirected as needed.

Department of Public Works crews are responding to reported flooded areas and are assessing, clearing drainage for water flow, and re-routing traffic.

Residents are advised to drive with extreme caution and use headlights while on the roads. Winds and large amounts of rain make driving during any storm dangerous to you and your passengers. Roads can flood quickly and become very dangerous. If possible, avoid driving under these conditions.

The following National Weather Service advisories remain in effect:

Flash flood warning in effect

Do not go hiking. Flash flooding is expected in low-lying areas and near river and streams. As a result, it is extremely dangerous to venture into jungle.
Also, residents are advised to stay away from streams, drainage ditches and low-lying areas prone to flooding. Rainfall and runoff will also cause hazardous driving conditions due to ponding, reduced visibility and poor braking action. Concurrently, this can cause manholes to come up out of the pavement so motorists are advised to be very cautious regarding manholes.
Six to 9 inches of rain have already fallen on Guam with flash flooding expected to continue over the next several hours. Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely Sunday.

High surf advisory

Stay out of the water. A high surf advisory has been issued, which means water conditions are dangerous. Guam can expect hazardous surf of 10 to 12 feet along east facing reefs, 8 to 10 feet along south and west facing reefs, and 6 to 9 feet along north facing reefs through Monday.

Accurate information through our media partners

The Joint Information Center is the government of Guam, military, and federal government’s clearinghouse for accurate information about emergencies. We will release all news releases via our email list, which includes media partners, and the Facebook pages of the Governor of Guam, Guam Homeland Security and Joint Region Marianas.

The following is a list of online sites where you can get the accurate information about Tropical Storm Chan-Hom:
◾GHS/OCD website
◾GHS/OCD Facebook
◾Governor of Guam Facebook
◾National Weather Service
◾Joint Region Marianas Facebook

Please call the Joint Information Center at 478-0208/9/10 for more information.

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1 p.m. Sunday, July 5, Guam time: Guam and U.S. bases on island have reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, according to Guam Homeland Security. Typhoon watch for Guam has been canceled, according to Guam’s National Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Chan-hom is now exiting the Marianas Islands packing sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts as it heads northwest, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

Dynamic models have come into better agreement regarding Chan-hom’s track in the coming days. The news is slightly better for Okinawa, as Chan-hom is now projected to pass 104 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at about 10 p.m. Thursday. The track has varied by some 250 miles the last two days. As always, things can change; PST will continue monitoring.

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1 a.m. Sunday, July 5, Guam time: With every Joint Typhoon Warning Center update the past 12 hours, Chan-hom’s track continues to drift back in Guam’s direction. And in the last 12 hours, the track regarding Okinawa has varied some 200 miles west.

Rota is now in the crosshairs, with Chan-hom expected to make a near-direct hit at about 6 a.m. Sunday, packing sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts at its center. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3. Saipan and Tinian remain in typhoon warning status, Rota is under a a tropical storm warning and a typhoon watch and Guam under typhoon watch, according to Guam’s National Weather Service.

Chan-hom is now forecast to pass just 37 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 60 miles northeast of Big Navy between 4 and 5 a.m. Sunday, packing moderate tropical storm winds. Chan-hom is projected to re-intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon sometime mid-Monday morning.

There is still much uncertainty regarding Chan-hom’s track in the coming days. The current JTWC track projects Chan-hom to pass 30 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at around 10 a.m. Thursday, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts. There remains a significant spread among the forecast models, 260 miles as of 6 p.m. Japan time Saturday.

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9 p.m. Saturday, July 4, Guam time: Chan-hom has fully commenced its northwest run toward the northern Marianas. It should pass just southwest of Saipan, Tinian will likely take a near-direct hit and the storm has edged somewhat closer to Guam, although the island remains in Condition of Readiness 3.

Guam’s National Weather Service has issued a typhoon and tropical storm warning for Saipan and Tinian. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam and Rota.

At 7 p.m., Chan-hom was 165 miles east of Guam, moving northwest at 13 mph. It’s due to pass 4 miles north of Tinian and 14 miles southwest of Saipan at about noon Sunday and 108 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 131 miles northeast of Big Navy around 10 a.m., packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts.

Chan-hom is forecast to re-intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at about 4 p.m. Sunday.

The news gets worse for Okinawa for the moment as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track now takes it 106 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at about 10 a.m. Thursday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center.

That could change, as the track has varied by hundreds of miles west and east over the four days of Chan-hom’s existence. JTWC reports a spread of nearly 260 miles among dynamic model guidance as Chan-hom approaches Okinawa.

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1:30 p.m. Saturday, July 4, Guam time: Guam and U.S. bases on island should remain in Condition of Readiness 3 throughout Saturday, according to the Joint Information Center’s latest statement.

Tropical Storm Chan-hom remains unpredictable, but is starting to track north and northwest and is forecast to pass through the northern Marianas, making a direct hit on Saipan at about 4 p.m. Sunday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track.

Chan-hom is projected to regain Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by mid-morning Sunday, intensifying as it moves northwest of the Marianas and peaking 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts as it approaches Japan’s southwestern islands.

Closest point of approach to Okinawa is forecast to be 175 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at about 9 a.m. Thursday. Much could change in the interim, as Chan-hom is still five days away from approaching Japan. PST will keep an eye on things.

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1:30 a.m. Saturday, July 4, Guam time: Still a bit of trepidation within Guam, its Homeland Security Department and National Weather Service, as the island remains under typhoon watch while Guam and U.S. bases on the island remain in Condition of Readiness 3, according to the Joint Information Center. COR 2 could be declared sometime Saturday afternoon.

But Tropical Storm Chan-hom continues on its unexpected northeast course, which could pull it more toward Saipan and Tinian and away from Rota and Guam in the coming hours, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track. Rota, Tinian and Saipan remain under typhoon watch as well.

At 7 p.m., Chan-hom was 310 miles southeast of Guam, moving northeast at 8 mph packing sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts. It’s forecast to begin curving northwest around mid-morning Saturday and begin re-intensifying, achieving Category 1-equivalent typhoon status by mid-Sunday morning.

Closest points of approach to Guam are now projected to be 144 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 170 miles northeast of Big Navy at about 7 p.m. Sunday. Chan-hom is on course to pass 25 miles north of Saipan and 44 miles north of Tinian about three hours later.

Bear in mind, a lot has changed in the last day, and more can change in the coming hours and days. Quoting Guam Governor Eddie Baza Calvo: “This storm has strengthened, weakened, changed course, moved faster and slowed down, all within the last 24 hours. I think it’s safe to say that we can expect further change and I urge residents to stay on alert in case that change is for the worst.”

As Chan-hom exits the Marianas, the news actually gets a little better for Okinawa and Kadena Air Base, as the forecast track has veered about 300 miles east in the last 12 hours. Closest point of approach is now forecast for 420 miles east of Kadena at 9 p.m. Wednesday, at which point it will be packing Category 4-equivalent 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts. How much of that Okinawa will experience remains to be seen, as there remains much uncertainty in the forecast track and computer model guidance.


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7 p.m. Friday, July 3, Guam time: How many times have folks heard over the years that tropical cyclones can be unpredictable?

Chan-hom became a prime example late Friday afternoon, when after making its way westward in its short lifespan, suddenly and unexpectedly made a sharp north-northeast right turn. Its wind speeds have also diminished; at 4 p.m., Chan-hom’s sustained winds had decreased to 52 mph and gusts fell off to 63 mph, and those numbers could drop as far as 46 and 58, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest graphic.

It’s forecast to come around north and northwest overnight Friday into Saturday, with Tinian now apparently in the crosshairs, 6 miles north around 2 a.m. Monday, at which point it should be packing sustained 90-mph winds and 110-mph gusts at its center. Chan-hom is forecast to pass 24 miles southwest of Saipan, 59 miles northeast of Rota and 98 miles northwest of Andersen Air Force Base.

So, while Guam may be spared Chan-hom’s full wrath, PST offers a word of caution; this is no time to become complacent. Chan-hom is forecast to re-intensify and while its track changed rather suddenly, it could easily change again.

And things don’t appear to have changed much for Okinawa, as JTWC’s forecast track still takes it in the island’s general direction late next week. At mid-afternoon Wednesday, Chan-hom is forecast to be packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts, a Category 4-equivalent storm. Still quite a ways away, and things could change, but vigilance is always a good thing.

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6 p.m. Friday, July 3, Guam time: Guam and U.S. bases on island remain in Condition of Readiness 3, according to the Joint Information Center’s latest release. Tropical Storm Chan-hom has diminished some, but is expected to re-intensify Saturday morning. A decision on whether to accelerate to COR 2 is expected then.

Some tips from the Joint Information Center should COR 2 be issued:

Getting families and pregnant moms ready for shelters, hospitals

At COR2, shelters open for families who need emergency shelter through the storm. These families should prepare to mobilize once shelters are opened. Also, women who are 36 weeks pregnant, or who are 6 months or more into a high-risk pregnancy, should prepare to move to Guam Memorial Hospital once COR2 is announced. For pregnant women who are regularly seen at Naval Hospital Guam, upon the declaration of COR2, Naval Hospital will accept pregnant women who are 38-weeks or later, and 36-weeks if high-risk (with complications) if they wish to ride out the storm at USNH Guam.

Joint Information Center asks that island residents remain vigilant, even in the face of Chan-hom’s winds decreasing. Conditions could change rapidly and Chan-hom can regain strength quickly. Island residents are encouraged to continue preparing for a typhoon.

Guam’s National Weather Service says a typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam, Tinian, Rota and Saipan. Closest point of approach to Guam should be early Sunday morning.

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1:30 p.m. Friday, July 3, Guam time: Several factors have caused Chan-hom to weaken into a tropical storm, and it is likely to remain one until it makes its way over Guam early Sunday morning as it re-intensifies into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.

At noon Friday, Chan-hom was about 325 miles southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west at 6 mph. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Chan-hom to begin curving northwest toward Guam later Friday, eventually heading about 8 miles north of Andersen packing sustained 75-mph winds and 86-mph gusts around 6 a.m. Sunday.

Guam and U.S. bases on island remain in Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade to COR 2 sometime early Saturday morning.

Much uncertainty remains over Chan-hom’s tracking, intensity, where it might head once it departs the Marianas. If it remains on its current track, Chan-hom is forecast to head northwest in the general direction of Okinawa and peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts around mid-morning Wednesday, several hundred miles southeast of Kadena Air Base.

But as suddenly as Chan-hom deteriorated overnight Thursday into Friday, there’s every chance things could change once more, twice more, etc. This is one storm that bears considerable watching.

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12:30 p.m. Friday, July 3, Guam time: Chan-hom has been downgraded to a tropical storm for the moment, but could re-intensify later Friday or Saturday and is still expected to hit Guam with 105-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts Sunday morning, according to the Joint Information Center. Following is information from its latest release:

Guam and U.S. installations on the island remain in Condition of Readiness 3. A decision will be made regarding COR 2 pending this afternoon’s weather advisory.

Chan-Hom was 320 miles southeast of Guam as of 7 a.m. It is moving west at 3-4 mph. The typhoon is forecast to become quasi-stationary for several hours then turn to the northwest towards the Mariana Islands. Chan-Hom’s current intensity is about 75 mph sustained winds with gusts of 90 mph. The closest point of approach to Guam is anticipated to be Sunday morning and is expected to bring sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts to 115 mph.

It’s important to note that storms can be unpredictable. Safety is paramount. It is strongly advised that the community prepare for the typhoon.

What to do:
1. Put up your shutters.
2. Clear debris and secure canopies, benches, chairs and outdoor furniture.
3. Make sure you replenish your emergency preparedness kit; store it in an easily-accessible location
4. Keep a battery-operated radio and batteries, or a hand-powered radio on hand. The radio could be the only way you’ll be able to get information on the storm if the power goes off.
5. When you’re done securing your homes and you know someone elderly, living with a disability, or who will otherwise need help, please see how you can help them. If you know a neighbor who has no way of getting information about the storm, please share updated information.
6. Stock up on water now.

Accurate information through our media partners

The Joint Information Center is the government of Guam, military, and federal government’s clearinghouse for accurate information about emergencies. We will release all news releases via our email list, which includes media partners, and the Facebook pages of the Governor of Guam, Guam Homeland Security and Joint Region Marianas. The following is a list of online sites where you can get the accurate information about Tropical Storm Chan-Hom:
◾GHS/OCD website
◾GHS/OCD Facebook
◾Governor of Guam Facebook
◾National Weather Service
◾Joint Region Marianas Facebook

Please call the Joint Information Center at 478-0208/9/10 for more information.

A list of media partners where you can get information about Chan-Hom:
◾ Isla 630 AM
◾ K57 AM
◾ i94 FM
◾ Power 98 FM
◾ 105 the KAT
◾ KISH 102.9 FM

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3:15 a.m. Friday, July 3, Guam time: It’s fairly clear that Guam remains in the crosshairs of Chan-hom, which was upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon Thursday evening by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The question being, where will Chan-hom head after leaving the Marianas?

The latest JTWC track shows Chan-hom turning northwest, striking Guam head-on and then making its way in the general direction of Okinawa, sometime late next week. It appears as if it will achieve Category 5-equivalent super-typhoon strength sometime Tuesday evening, making it the fourth super typhoon of the relatively young season.

It remains to be seen how close it would come if it does threaten Okinawa, or whether it heads in a different direction altogether. Way too soon to say at this point. Much more should be known following the Fourth of July weekend.

As for Guam, Chan-hom at 1 a.m. local time was 335 miles southeast of the island and heading west-southwest at 23 mph, alternately slowing down and speeding up. There’s question about Chan-hom’s lateral speed in the next 24 to 36 hours according to JTWC.

If it remains on its current track, Chan-hom is forecast to pass almost directly over the capital of Hagatna and Big Navy and about 20 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base at about 4 a.m. Sunday, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 135-mph gusts at its center. Again, that can change.

Guam and U.S. installations on the island remain in Condition of Readiness 3 and under a typhoon watch. Expect those to be upgraded to COR 2 and a typhoon warning at least for Guam sometime late Friday or early Saturday. Guam’s National Weather Service says anywhere from 8 to 12 inches of rain is expected, causing flash flooding in some areas.

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6 p.m. Thursday, July 2, Guam time: Guam and U.S. installations on the island remain in Condition of Readiness 3, according to the Joint Information Center. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the Guam National Weather Service.

At 4 p.m. Guam time, Chan-hom was 430 miles east-southeast of Guam and Rota, headed west-southwest at 20 mph. Chan-hom is expected to continue heading west through Friday night, when it’s due to turn northwest on a track that would bring it close the Marianas Islands on Saturday.

There is still a 220-mile spread among dynamic guidance, so the scenario could change. Chan-hom also might absorb the remnants of tropical disturbance 94W east of Guam, which has dissipated.

If it remains on the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, Chan-hom should intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon sometime early Saturday morning. Andersen Air Force Base appears for the moment to be in the crosshairs, 3 miles north, at about 6 a.m. Sunday, packing Category 2-equivalent 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

Once past Guam, Chan-hom is forecast to move over the warm waters of the northwest Pacific basin, and possibly become the fourth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season sometime Tuesday afternoon. Its current track takes it in the general direction of Okinawa late next week, but it’s way too soon to tell definitively if it will affect the island, said an official with Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Additional information just released by the Joint Information Center on Guam:

Naval base information

Naval Base Guam MWR recreational facilities, which include Gab Gab Beach, Sumay Marina and Spanish Steps, will close at sunset Friday. The Navy base's Fourth of July picnic and concert have been postponed.

Flooding

Residents are advised to take heed of all advisories issued by the National Weather Service and the Joint Information Center. Tropical Storm Chan-Hom has potential to bring torrential rain to the Mariana Islands with possible 8-12 inches of rain during passage. Roads in poor drainage areas could become impassable. Houses in low-lying areas and close to streams and rivers could take on water.

Residents should take precautionary actions by clearing debris from storm drains near you. If you live near water, pay close attention to water levels.

Caution on roads

Rain and wind from the storm could create dangerous driving conditions. Low-lying areas that could flood include Route 1 Piti in the Polaris Point area, Merizo through Inarajan, and Pago Bay. Drivers should be mindful of this when it begins to rain. Residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas should consider securing their homes in preparation of flood and moving temporarily to a family member’s home or public shelter.

Dangerous ocean conditions

As the storm gets closer, water conditions will become dangerous. Residents and visitors are cautioned against engaging in any kind of water-related activities during the approach and passing of Tropical Storm Chan-Hom. The public is advised against venturing along trails close to the water or shoreline as high surf can knock a person down and sweep them off beaches and rocks. These waves can be deadly even for the most experienced swimmers.

This weather is the 'calm before the storm'

There’s still time to prepare for Tropical Storm Chan-Hom. Residents are advised to go over all of your emergency preparedness plans, including emergency first aid kits. Start storing potable and non-potable water, nonperishable foods and candles. Pick up any loose debris in your yards that can fly due to strong winds.

Accurate information through our media partners

The Joint Information Center is the government of Guam, military, and federal government’s clearinghouse for accurate information about emergencies. We will release all news releases via our email list, which includes media partners, and the Facebook pages of the Governor of Guam, Guam Homeland Security and Joint Region Marianas. The following is a list of online sites where you can get the accurate information about Tropical Storm Chan-Hom:
◾GHS/OCD website
◾GHS/OCD Facebook
◾Governor of Guam Facebook
◾National Weather Service
◾Joint Region Marianas Facebook

Please call the Joint Information Center at 478-0208/9/10 for more information.

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10 a.m. Thursday, July 2, Guam time: Guam and U.S. installations on the island have been placed in Condition of Readiness 3, according to the Joint Information Center. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

A typhoon watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, meaning winds of 74 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. Guam can expect winds up to 80 mph as it makes its closest approach to the island, 26 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base around midnight Saturday. Chan-hom is forecast to pass 9 miles south of Rota, which could take the worst of it.

At 10 a.m., Chan-hom was 545 miles east-southeast of Guam, moving west at 12 mph.

Residents are urged to make necessary preparations at home and office. Non-perishable foods and drinking water to last at least three days. Flashlight, batteries and portable radio. First-aid kit. Food and diapers for the young’uns. Food for your furry friends. Medication, mortgage and loan papers, passports, birth certificates and medical records. Store or tie down loose objects. Fuel up your cars and visit the ATM to get enough cash to last for three days. Fuel up generators. Secure loose objects around the office.

Stay tuned local radio and TV news and follow Guam Homeland Security and National Weather Service home and Facebook pages.

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12:30 a.m. Thursday, July 2, Guam time: Chan-hom is still in its relative infancy, entering its second day as a tropical cyclone, so changes in forecast tracks are all but a sure thing. Such is the case with the latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which now projects Chan-hom to pass just north of Guam early Sunday.

Chan-hom’s forward speed slowing to just 6 mph almost due west is chiefly responsible. A day ago, Chan-hom was due to pass Guam midmorning on Saturday.

Now, JTWC projects Chan-hom to roar past Guam as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, packing sustained 81-mph winds and 98-mph gusts as it passes 16 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, 35 mph north of the capital Hagatna and 39 miles north of Big Navy at about 2 a.m. Sunday.

The monsoon trough stretching from Palau to the Marshalls remains active, with three other tropical disturbances lurking from east of Manila to east of Kwajalein. Not to mention the one lurking close to Chu’uk. We could have as many as four numbered storms in the next week or so.

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8 p.m. Wednesday, July 1, Guam time: Chan-hom’s forward speed has slightly decreased since the last update, according to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Guam’s National Weather Service has Chan-hom 750 miles east-southeast of Guam at 7 p.m. local time, moving west at 12 mph, down from 21 mph at mid-day, packing maximum sustained 45-mph winds. That can only help nourish a tropical cyclone, moving slowly over warm sea-surface temperatures.

If Chan-hom stays on its current path, it’s likely to interact with that aforementioned second tropical disturbance east of Guam, which would likely induce a northwest turn for Chan-hom – and a closer approach to Guam later in the day Saturday; earlier projections said Saturday morning.

JTWC projects Chan-hom to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon early Friday morning, then curve northwest toward Guam, rumbling 15 miles south of Big Navy, 21 miles south of the island capital of Hagatna and 39 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base, packing sustained 86-mph winds and 104-mph gusts at its center.

And traffic appears to have picked up along Typhoon Alley in addition to Chan-hom and the disturbance east of Guam. JTWC has also posted advisories on one disturbance some 630 miles east-southeast of Manila and another 550 miles east-southeast of Kwajalein Atoll. All that in addition to Tropical Cyclone 25P (Raquel), which is headed in the general direction of the Coral Sea. Busy times, these are.

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4 p.m. Wednesday, July 1, Guam time: A news release from Guam’s department of Homeland Security posted to its Facebook page provides some sound advice – especially for folks new to the island – in preparing for the arrival of a typhoon, which could happen this weekend with Tropical Storm Chan-hom bearing down on the Marianas islands:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 1, 2015 (2 p.m. Chamorro Standard time)

Tropical Storm Chan-hom moves toward Mariana Islands

Residents should take advantage of weather to prepare

As advised by the National Weather Service (NWS), Tropical Storm Chan-hom (TS 09W) is 305 miles north-northeast of Pohnpei and moving northwest toward the Mariana Islands.

There are no watches or warnings in effect for Guam at this time. As of 2 p.m. Chamorro Standard Time, Tropical Storm Chan-hom was 810 miles east of Guam, moving northwest at 22 mph.

Although this weather system is no threat to Guam at this time, it can certainly become one over the next few days. We will know more the closer Tropical Storm Chan-hom gets to the Mariana Islands.
NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Chip Guard states “Conditions could change during the night. National Weather Service anticipates the storm slowing down during the night and we should know more about the exact track tomorrow morning.”

GHS/OCD advises residents and visitors to make necessary preparations at home and at work. As a precaution, residents should take the following steps to prepare for the tropical storm:
◾ Prepare your emergency preparedness kits for your household.
◾ Take care of the yard and store objects that can fly with heavy wind.
◾ Gas your car and get fuel for your generators.
◾ Stock up on non-perishable foods (like canned goods) and drinking water.
◾ Get batteries for flashlights and battery-operated radios.
◾ Get your shutters ready.
◾ Prepare and secure your office area.

Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense (GHS/OCD) in conjunction with NWS will continue to monitor all conditions in our area closely and provide updates in a timely manner. Residents and visitors are advised to stay tuned to local media for any changes to this system.

For more information, contact Public Affairs Officer Jenna Gaminde at 475-9600 or via email at jenna.gaminde@ghs.guam.gov.

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1 p.m. Wednesday, July 1, Guam time: Chan-hom strengthened into a tropical storm overnight Tuesday, and with it came a forecast track change that could take the storm just south-southwest of Guam around mid-morning Saturday.

According to Guam’s National Weather Service, Chan-hom was about 1,000 miles east of Guam at 7 a.m. Wednesday, tracking northwest at 5 mph, but since then, its forward speed has increased, now moving west-northwest at 21 mph, JTWC said in its latest advisory.

If it remains on its current forecast track, Chan-hom is projected to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon sometime late Thursday, then pass 37 miles south of Big Navy, 40 miles south of the island capital of Hagatna and 60 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base at mid-morning Saturday.

There is still much uncertainty regarding track speeds and direction, given there’s still another tropical disturbance nearby, which Chan-hom could end up absorbing. There could be some changes in the coming hours and days as a result. PST will keep an eye on things.

No watches or warnings have been issued at this time for the Marianas, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. High surf advisories remain in effect for Kosrae, Pohn’pei, Chu’uk, Yap and Palau.

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1:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 1, Guam time: Looking like a wet, windy July 4th weekend for the northern Marianas islands as Tropical Depression Chan-hom has begun tracking west-northwest away from Micronesia and in the general direction of the main Marianas Islands, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s first warning on Chan-hom.

Every chance, according to the JTWC’s latest advisory, that the system just west of Chan-hom could end up getting swallowed up by the latter.

Based on the initial forecast track, Guam should be relatively safe from the worst of Chan-hom; JTWC forecasts Chan-hom to rumble about 150 miles north-northeast of the Top of the Rock, Andersen Air Force Base, at about 4 p.m. Sunday, and about 35 miles north of Saipan at around 10 p.m. Sunday.

Chan-hom is projected to achieve Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength as it passes just north of Saipan, with 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at its center as it roars past on a northwesterly course.

Once beyond the Marianas, the forecast models diverge in terms of direction and track speed, so it’s too early to say which way Chan-hom might head after that. Could be the Philippines, could be Taiwan, could be Okinawa; too early to tell at this juncture. PST, as always, will keep an eye on things.

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2 p.m. Tuesday, June 30, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center regarding the disturbance centered about 230 miles northeast of Pohn’pei, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. A second disturbance remains about 400 miles southeast of Guam and 260 miles west-northwest of Chu’uk.

The National Weather Service statement indicated that model guidance is coming into better agreement and development of both these systems. The one near Pohn’pei is expected to gradually turn west-northwest in the next day or so. The second disturbance could eventually be absorbed by the first one.

That scenario could bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Marianas by Friday, with a possible tropical storm or typhoon over or near the islands over the weekend.

That said, there’s still some disagreement over the timing of the development and intensity and the timing of the turn and the path it will take. PST will continue to keep watch.

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4:15 p.m. Monday, June 29, Guam time: A second tropical disturbance has formed and is slowly moving east about 400 miles south-southeast of Guam, joining the already existing disturbance 310 miles north-northeast of Pohn’pei, according to the most recent statements by Guam’s National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Both weather outlets see weak development of the system near Guam as it crawls to the east, and much stronger development of the one near Pohn’pei, predicting a west-northwest turn and possible passage over the main Marianas islands, possibly affecting Guam, or the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas over the weekend.

Still, much uncertainty remains over the forecast track, appearing to move northeast before heading in Guam’s general direction, said an official at Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Heavy rain and high seas are forecast for Pohn’pei, Chu’uk and Kosrae as the disturbance develops, with 3 to 6 inches of rain, westerly monsoon winds of up to 30 mph and waves as high as 12 feet projected.

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4 p.m. Saturday, June 28, Guam time: The tropical disturbance developing in Micronesia has moved three degrees north since it began forming Friday and could develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two to three days, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center advised at midafternoon Saturday.

National Weather Service on Guam’s latest statement said Pohn’pei and Kosrae can expect from 4 to 7 inches of rain as the system develops, possibly causing landslides and flooding.

The disturbance, which would become the ninth numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, is forecast to gradually turn west-northwest and could threaten the Marianas islands later this week.

Where it heads beyond that is way too soon to tell, officials said; computer models are all over the place at this point, some pointing it toward the Philippines, others toward Taiwan, possibly grazing Okinawa, and another curving sharply northeast toward the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area. PST has it under finger.

If it does become a named storm, it would be called Chan-hom, Laotian for a type of tree.

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7:15 p.m. Saturday, June 27, Guam time: A new tropical disturbance formed overnight Friday and as of 4 p.m. Chamorro Standard Time, was about 360 miles east-southeast of Pohn’pei, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s website.

It said the disturbance could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. A statement released Saturday morning by the Guam National Weather Service indicated the new disturbance could affect the Marianas Islands by the second half of next week.

Too soon to say at this point where it might head after that, but the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Centre’s Facebook page indicated the disturbance could threaten Taiwan or Okinawa by the first full week of July.

PST will keep an eye on it.